Stochastic Scenario for ENSO Irregularity
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Lecture 3 ENSO’s irregularity and phase locking
That El Nino is aperiodic is seen, for example, in a nino3 time series (Fig. 26). The ENSO delayed oscillator mechanism may result in either self-sustained oscillations, or in a steady state solution that has a damped oscillatory mode. In the later case, oscillations may be excited by external stochastic (weather) noise. In the scenario in which ENSO is self-sustained, it may be irregular due t...
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The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the dominant climatic fluctuation on interannual time scales. It is an irregular oscillation with a distinctive broadband spectrum. In this article, we discuss recent theories that seek to explain this irregularity. Particular attention is paid to explanations that involve the stochastic forcing of the slow ocean modes by fast atmospheric tr...
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